Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
